A driving force for sustainable economic growth in China from the wave-like effects of technological diffusion

This paper analyses the influence of the spatial association of different provinces on technological diffusion and economic growth, using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2016. The results show that firstly, there is a strong spatial correlation in economic growth between the provinces from Moran’s I index and Geary’s C index. Secondly, the decomposition of the direct and indirect effects in the spatial Durbin model reveals that foreign direct investment is a crucial factor for sustained economic growth. Last but not least, technological diffusion, exhibited in wave-like characteristics in China.     

地方政府竞争、土地价格与外商直接投资——基于69个地级市面板数据的分析

选取2005—2015年我国中部五省共69个地级市的数据，在考虑存在空间溢出效应可能性的基础上，采用空间面板数据模型分析地方政府竞争、土地价格对外商直接投资的空间影响。实证研究结果表明：工业用地价格降低和商业用地价格升高有利于吸引外商直接投资，地方政府竞争通过直接和间接作用于土地出让价格两种手段影响外商直接投资规模。土地价格和政府竞争对地理相邻地区的FDI能够产生显著影响，一个地区的工业土地价格降低、商业土地价格升高将抑制地理相邻地区的FDI规模，同时，一个地区政府竞争的加剧也会降低地理相邻地区的FDI，但这一空间溢出效应在经济距离相邻权重下并不显著，说明中部五省地级市的竞争主要存在于地理位置相邻的地方政府间。     

知识溢出、吸收能力与经济增长——基于调节效应的检验

本文基于罗默经济增长模型分析知识溢出、吸收能力与经济增长之间的逻辑关系，从理论上阐述知识溢出对经济增长的作用机理，并利用2006—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据，检验三者之间的数量关系。理论研究表明，知识溢出与吸收能力对经济增长有重要作用，且吸收能力在知识溢出与经济增长的关系中起到重要的调节作用。实证研究发现，知识溢出与吸收能力均表现为对经济增长的正向促进作用；知识溢出与吸收能力的交互项系数显著为正，表明吸收能力在知识溢出与经济增长的关系中发挥正向调节作用。因此，为实现经济持续平稳的发展，应不断鼓励技术创新，提高区域自主创新水平，促进区域间交流合作，充分发挥知识溢出和吸收能力对经济增长的积极作用。     

Simultaneous borrowing of information across space and time for pricing insurance contracts: An application to rating crop insurance policies

Changing climate and technology can often lead to nonstationary losses across both time and space for a variety of insurance lines including property, catastrophe, health, and life. As a result, naive estimation of premium rates using past losses will tend to be biased. We present three successively flexible data‐driven methodologies to nonparametrically smooth across both space and time simultaneously, thereby appropriately incorporating possibly nonidentically distributed data into the rating process. We apply these methodologies in estimating U.S. crop insurance premium rates. Crop insurance, with global premiums totaling $4.1 trillion in 2018, is an interesting application as losses exhibit both temporal and spatial nonstationarity. We find significant borrowing of information across both time and space. We also find all three methodologies improve both the stability and accuracy of crop insurance premium rates. The proposed methods may be of relevance for other lines of insurance characterized by spatial and/or temporal nonstationary losses.     

地方政府土地出让互动干预对工业用地利用效率的影响 ——基于262个城市的空间计量模型检验

研究目的:深入探讨地方政府工业用地出让互动干预对区域工业用地利用效率的影响。研究方法:空间自相关,空间计量模型。研究结果:中国各城市之间的政府土地出让干预存在显著的空间正相关性;无论是地理位置相邻还是经济发展水平相近的城市,彼此间的工业用地出让互动干预都会进一步降低区域的工业用地利用效率;从全国层面来看,相对于"经济意义"相邻的城市,"地理意义"相邻的城市其政府工业用地出让互动干预对用地效率表现出更强烈的负向影响;从东、中、西部三大区域来看,政府工业用地出让互动干预对用地效率的负向影响,呈现出自东向西愈来愈强的现实特征。研究结论:应深化工业用地出让制度改革,减少地方扭曲地价行为,并构建相适宜的综合考核体系,推动城市间协调发展。     

What threatens retail employees' thriving at work under leader‐member exchange? The role of store spatial crowding and team negative affective tone

Thriving at work is a positive psychological state that captures employees' joint experience of learning and vitality. Building on the socially embedded model of thriving , we first propose the positive relationship between leader‐member exchange (LMX) and retail employees' thriving at work. We then explore store spatial crowding as a contextual constraint on this relationship. To better reveal this contextual impact, we further contend that team negative affective tone mediates the cross‐level moderating effect of store spatial crowding on the LMX–thriving linkage. Using two‐wave survey data collected from retail employees and their store managers across 89 stores of a grocery retail chain, we found empirical evidence on our multilevel‐mediated moderation model. This study highlights the importance of considering wider contextual features as boundary conditions to thriving. Our results suggest theoretical modifications to the existing thriving model and offer implications on the practical interventions that retailing organizations can take to develop a thriving workforce.     

Do Non‐exporting Plants Benefit from Exporting Peer Plants?*

This study examines indirect spillover effects at plant level within firms by analyzing the performance of non‐exporting plants with exporting peer plants by using Korean plant–firm matched data from 2007 to 2013. Our results show that there are no significant differences in growth between non‐exporting plants and their exporting peer plants in the same firms, whereas significant differences exist among non‐exporting plants depending on whether their peers export. This implies that exporting peer plants are important channels through which non‐exporting plants benefit within a firm.     

淮河生态经济带不同水文时期水质的时空特征研究

[目的]揭示淮河生态经济带不同水文时期水质的时空特征,为水污染治理提供科学依据。[方法]应用统计方法和地理空间分析方法,阐明不同水文时期水质的时空特征。[结果](1)时间上,不同水质指标在各水文时期的中位值总体接近,但波动幅度差异较大;丰水期前期水质偏差而后期较好,而平水期和枯水期污染物浓度以2月、3月偏高。(2)空间上,不同水文时期的水质表现为干流较好而北侧支流较差的格局。各水文时期pH总体稳定,DO仅在丰水期时空间差异略大;不同水文时期COD_(Mn)和NH_3-N的浓度差异较大,空间分异较突出,北侧支流水系浓度较高水质偏差。(3)水质时序差异与不同水文时期降水径流的消解作用和水利工程的调节控制有关;而水质的空间差异主要受南北水系不对称且降水南多北少的水文差异和水体自净能力影响。[结论]淮河生态经济带各水文时期的水质在时间上波动差异较大,而空间上干流水质较好但北部支流水质较差,应当重点加强经济带内淮河干流北侧支流的水体污染治理。     

城镇化与城乡收入差距——基于省域面板模型的分析

本文运用全国数据，考察城镇化与城乡收入差距的动态变化关系，发现1990～2014年城镇化与城乡收入差距之间呈倒U型变化，其拐点在2005年。根据1996～2013年省域面板数据特征，使用空间面板模型进行分阶段检验，结果表明，1996～2004年城镇化扩大了城乡收入差距，而在2005～2013年城镇化缩小了城乡收入差距。同样利用1996～2013年省域面板数据，估算每个省份城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响效果，结果显示，城镇化缩小城乡收入差距的地区一般为东部沿海省份。可见，城镇化是否产生缩小城乡收入差距的效应是有阶段性和地区差异性的。就目前及未来而言，可以把城镇化作为缩小城乡收入差距的一个手段。但其真正发挥这个作用，还依赖于有关政策的完善与创新。对经济发展阶段较滞后的地区而言，应积极促进城镇化缩小城乡收入差距效果的到来。